It Is As Good A Guess As Mine: Film Forecasting

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The film industry is like any other in terms of risk, profitability and revenue generation, but the research leading up to that final decision to pull the trigger is very unique. As NewYork Times columnist Adam Davidson explains is his article “How does the film industry actually make money?”, film deals with so much more guess work than any other industry and requires a sense of comfort in the unknown. Screenwriters, producers and financiers try to look at what is currently popular, which actor is causing the most noise and what book is a current best seller, but these factors still do not guarantee an audience or profits. Market research and audience screenings can help tweak a film in post-production but the movie has already been made. There is no re-do when millions of dollars and countless resources have been utilized. Even a big named star in a CGI filmed, action packed movie based on a screenplay from the most popular book of the decade does not promise a blockbuster. There is very limited ability for producers to do any forecasting for the future or analyzing of the past, even with the “perfect” combinations, and the industries inability to break-even or make a profit verifies this point (Davidson, 2012).

A variance in this profit forecasting dilemma appears with the sense of security that comes with a sequel. A follow-up film to one that brought audiences to the theaters allows producers to forecast more accurately and therefore spend more money. A set cast, cohesive crew, and a style with proven success helps to alleviate some of the immense risk that comes with filmmaking. The most successful of this strategy comes from the multi-million dollar blockbusters packed full of action and good-looking people. Danielle Kurtzleben discusses why this method is so effective in her article “Why sequels have taken over the box office”. Sequels allow an audience to reconnect with favorite characters, save time on casting and filming, as well as the ability to reach an international market where the language barrier can be diminished by car chases and impressive graphics.

Movie sales are dwindling more every year due to at home viewing opportunities and Internet dominance and the film industry is working with no power in prediction. Investors are now looking towards other areas of entertainment, including the Internet and the surprising resurgence of television (Davidson, 2012), but the dilemma is the same. There is no way to know where an audience is going to spend their money and a human being’s fickle nature leads to huge risk and no guarantee of reward. The industry is tough though and has survived wartime, depressions, recessions, and every other economic climate imaginable. Film is steeped in history, glamour and intrigue and although the factors that contribute to that magic are unpredictable, when everything comes together and an audience responds, the rewards can vastly outweigh the risk.